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2019 BBHOF Tracker Summary and Leaderboard

View the full Tracker with all individual ballots: 2019 BBHOF Tracker

 

 

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101 Comments

  1. Just an FYI that Placido Polanco’s vote doesn’t appear here, and he shows at 0.0%. I’m guessing that’s because he doesn’t appear in the general tracker.

  2. Correct, Polanco appears only on a partial ballot at the moment, and thus is not included in the total.

  3. I think Schilling being on the bubble is getting Clemens more votes, considering he has 150 more wins.

    • Ron, because Clemens (and Bonds) do worse on the later and private ballots, being at 75-ish% now means they are unlikely to make it this time around. I would guess they finish around 70%, give or take a point or two.

    • while you teach your children cheating is rewarded, I’ll teach my children integrity.

      • But, cheating already has been rewarded by the Veterans Committee voting in managers La Russa, Torre and Cox, who managed some of these alleged/actual roiders and surely knew about it.

        • socraticgadfly…I think MOST people grow out of “But THEY did it too!” as an excuse around age 6. So…when do YOU start school, little boy?

    • OR a bad year for morons who have no idea what htey ae talking about. He tracks in the high 60s all the time. And EVERY YEAR the final votes are 10-15% lower. The people revealing their votes are the ones trying to make a statement.

      Sorry to give you one more reason to kill yourself, but Clemens is not getting in. If that is what you are holding out for before slitting your wrists, you may as well get that razor blade ready.

  4. I wish, but the early ballots are a LOT more friendly to Bonds/Clemens/Schilling than the voter population as a whole. I’d expect the “real” totals on first three to end up around 60%, which would be a fair boost for Schilling, not much at all for the other two.

    • It is there now, if it was not when you last looked. BTW, I hope someone has the guts not to put Rivera on his ballot. If someone is ever to get 100%, it needs not to be a reliever. Great guy, belongs in the HoF, but if Griffey Jr. didn’t get 100%, a relief pitcher surely should not be the first.

      • Sorry. This issue should NOT be about a reliever vs an Outfielder. The 100% issue should be based upon the actual ballot, who else is on it, etc. If a writer or anyone for that matter) believes Rivera is worthy, and belongs in the HOF, then withholding his name from their ballot or their support because they believe that “so and so” did not get 100% so he shouldn’t either is irresponsible, and according to everything disclosed about the balloting and voting process is a clear violation of the ethics associated with the gift and responsibility of receiving a vote in the first place.

        Rivera is either a “Pure” HOF player worthy of the vote, or he is not. Not giving him the respect of the vote because Griffey JR did not get 100%?? Cannot reasonably justify that. Also cannot reasonably justify why Griffey (or Seaver, Ruth, Cobb, etc.) did not receive 100 % but Rivera is undoubtedly the greatest reliever of all-time. This cannot be debated.

        • Did anyone ever do a story on why 3 voters did not vote for Griffey, Jr.? I just want to know why they did not, I don’t need to know who they were. I want to know their justification or reasoning for not voting for Griffey, Jr. One reason I came up with is that they wanted a Yankee – Rivera or Jeter – to be the first to get 100% Time will tell if that comes to be.

          • I’ve heard two theories as to why someone doesn’t vote for blatantly obvious candidates, although I don’t know if either applies to Griffey. One is that some old-school guys believed that if Mantle or Ruth weren’t unanimous, then nobody should be so they withhold a vote to ensure it. The other is that some voters will use their 10 votes on bubble candidates knowing that one or two votes isn’t going to make a difference to candidates like Griffey.

        • Kyle..then anyone who gets in should be 100%. I get that you are a typical lifelong virgin Yankee fan…but FAR more deserving players have fallen short of unanimous and you didn’t whine like the little bi*ch that your momma raised you to be over those.But you have to realize that this is WHY you are a lifelong virgin.

    • John, that info is in the full tracker: bit.ly/hall19, or go to the top of the page and click on “2019 HOF Tracking Sheet.” What’s here is a condensation of the larger sheet.

      And Old Bob, I’m certain that one of the private ballots won’t include Rivera.

  5. Omar Vizquel is being hurt by Bill James’s warped perspective of offensive stats that favor the power hitter and hurt the speed / contact hitters. I read of a statistic that blames Vizquel for putting the ball in play too much instead of striking out, even though Vizquel not only put the ball in play more, but he also had less double play grounders than the typical power hitter, a lot less, in an extra 75 to 100 contact at bats.

    Then James Massacred the value of the sacrifice bunt and sacrifice fly, so Vizquel as the Modern Era leader in combo sac hits and sac flies with 350 gets no street cred, even though no other modern era player has even reached 300 combos.

    Every stat has been twisted to favor the power hitter. A power hitter who strikes out a lot is even valued because it means they don’t hit into as many double plays. Yet, a sacrifice is valued equivalent to an at bat.

    Vizquel had a virtual 1 to 1 ratio of walks to strikeouts, something that less than 10 percent of all ballplayers achieve. Yet that stat is used against Vizquel as well since it means a drop in his overall grounders and fly ball batting average. Yes, James has a stat that punishes a contact hitter for not striking out

    This James worship is approaching insanity. No one questions why moving three runners over is only worth one sacrifice. No one is able to place a value on a speed player at first affecting the pitcher more than a slower runner, instead all that is valued is the stolen base percentage.

    Moving a runner over via a grounder is not credited. Since when is moving a runner over while trying to get a hit no more valuable than striking out? More insanity. And what about errors. Many errors are caused by speed and hustle, so yes, the batter should get credited for a hit if their speed played any role in the error happening.

    Add up multiple sacrifices on the same play, give a sacrifice for moving a runner over on a grounder, and suddenly Vizquel would have 700 combo sacrifices in his career. Add in hits for errors caused by speed and Vizquel’s OPS probably rises to .710 That’s a solid offensive player who could be counted on to make contact.

    OPS is flawed and biased against speed / contact players and Vizquel is paying for it on the Hall of Fame Ballot. If Vizquel’s offense was as bad as the OPS fanatics believe, he never would have lasted 24 seasons in the bigs. We need an anti Bill James in the Baseball stat world, and the sooner the better.

    • I’m not sure where to start, but let’s take a look at Mr. James’s approach. Instead of assuming that traditional statistics had value, he and the data analysts asked the logical, data-oriented questions — since runs are the currency of winning, what individual offensive statistics correlate the most with team scoring? They determined that the two most tightly-correlated figures were getting on base and adding bases due to safe hits — OBP and SLG. Whatever was third was so far back as to be irrelevant.

      Likewise, pitchers’ most important attribute was to PREVENT baserunners and to limit extra bases on hits (duh), since the pitcher’s job is to neutralize offense and OBP and SLG were what measured the most productive offenses.

      They determined that certain things we value a lot, like the sacrifice bunt, stolen bases and advancing a runner with an out, were situationally helpful but often unhelpful. For example, a sac bunt (no out, runner on first) increases the likelihood of scoring one run in the inning, but DECREASES the likelihood of scoring more than one. So it only makes sense in a late inning when you need a run to tie, or late in a tie game. Otherwise, it is detrimental. Obviously, the same is true for the “productive out.” The value of a stolen base is heavily dependent on the likelihood of making it; at a certain percentage steals are not worth attempting, although again, you have to measure the likelihood of making it against the impact (greater chance of one run, lesser chance of two or more).

      Give the new evaluations credit for doing actual statistical assessments instead of relying on the way it has always been done. Unfortunately, many people who don’t understand, or can’t understand, the value of that kind of analysis use poor logic and insults to try to make their case.

    • Vizquel isn’t a HOFer, first.

      Second, he had 300 or fewer PAs in four of list last five seasons. So, he wasn’t a 24-year full-time player.

      Third, on fielding, he’s as far behind the Wiz as he is ahead of league average. Fortunately, you didn’t even try to talk about his fielding, but ….

      Fourt, he’s also five points behind Ozzie on career OPS+.

      Bye.

    • Omar Vizquel is money! From start to finish, he was one of the most consistent players I’ve ever seen! His tenacity, integrity and dedication to his team and the community, should be the cornerstone of MLB.

  6. The biggest travesty on the ballot is Fred McGriff. He was a professional and a great hitter. Voters sicken me. However it would be amazing if Mo, moose and the rocket got in as 3 Yankees. Yankees should be inducted every year. Petite should of been automatic to

    • You’re right about “The Crime Dog”. It seems the Modern Era portion of the Veterans Comittee will have to put him in since the BBWAA can’t.

    • Agreed about Crime Dog, Keith. He should have gotten in already. I just hope this late surge of support will get him noticed by the Today’s Game Era Committee and they’ll do the right thing and vote him in.

    • KEITH R -THERE ARE MORE THAN ENOUGH PINSTRIPERS IN THE HALL NOW SO, NO, YANKEES DO NOT NEED TO BE NAMED YEARLY NOR SHOULD THEY EXPECT TO BE … YOUR STATEMENT IS NOT EVEN SENSIBLE AS THERE ARE NOT THAT MANY WHO ARE OR EVER WOULD BE WORTHY … PLEASE, BE REASONABLE, DO A LITTLE DETAILED RESEARCH THEN COME BACK WITH A SMARTER, SHARPER VIEW. – COLONEL77

    • Do you not realize that this is why you have never seen a woman naked? Women don’t get wet over grown men who act like TEN YEAR OLDS over ANY sports team. But that is you and most Yankee fans in a nutshell.

      I hate to tell you, but if October didn’t almost drive you to suicide, your disappointment when only Rivera gets in AT ALL might put you over the top. And nobody will be sad.

  7. Your full ballot now lists the 2018 ballots, not the 2019 ballots- please correct.
    If Clemens and /or Bonds get in, this will be the most controversial HofF election ever, needless to say, what with Baines.

  8. Mariano Rivera deserves 100% for 2019. Same with Derek Jeter for 2020.
    Mussina and Clemens would also boost the number of Yankees in Cooperstown.
    Say what you want about Bonds and Clemens. at least they are going to eventually get in. Unlike Pete Rose.
    I’m surprised at the low tally on Andy Pettitte. 100 more wins than losses. The greatest Pick-Off pitcher I’ve seen. Another great Yankee.

    • Victor…when you kill yourself in 3 years after Bonds and Clemens don’t make it, please do the ONE thing that make your family proud of you for the first time in your life. Do it in a way that doesn’t force them to have to clean up the mess. Which also means sending a letter to someone a day before you do it. Otherwise, no one will even notice you are gone and your bloated body won’t be found for weeks.

    • Why do Yankee fans assume Clemens, if he does get voted in, will go in as a Yankee? His best individual seasons were as a member of the Blue Jays and we all know his stats as a member of the Red Sox

      • Because of how the Red Sox let him go. plus, Clemens won his rings in The Bronx.

    • I don’t know the deadline for writers to submit their ballots, but the announcement will be on Jan 22 on MLB Network, so soon.

  9. Have any candidates (since the Tracker was started in 2009) been at 90% of the vote at the one-third mark and failed to be elected that year?

    • Only since 2014 have the Tracker been above one-third of all ballots submitted for voting. In such time, no one has tracked at 90+% at the one-third point and not been inducted. In 2016, Bagwell was at 82.5% at the 31% mark and when actual results came out, dropped all the way to 71.6%. Mussina is currently at 82.3% at the 35.7% mark. Edgar appears safe. Based on at least the prior 5 years of HOF tracking results, 85+% at one-third leads to induction.

      • Thanks. I had wondered about what could possibly be considered a “safety net” at the one-third (or even halfway) point, and had been unable to find archives of prior trackers at specific points of ballot results.

  10. Shouldn’t McGriff’s percentage that is less than 75% be shown in red since this is his last year on the ballot and he will be eliminated too.

    • First, he isn’t in his first year (like the others in red) and he hasn’t been eliminated just yet… Another few votes and he will.

      • Yes, you are correct that it’s not his first year. That is exactly what I’m trying to point out is that it is his last year and he will be eliminated with a total below 75% not 5%. Since these colors are being set based upon the current vote and not a projection then McGriff should also be shown in red. Lets say hypothetically that there are no more votes and this is the final tally then he would be eliminated but his number is not shown in red.

          • You’re interpreting red to be below 5%, I interpreted it as meaning eliminated. McGriff will be eliminated with any percentage below 75 since its his last year.

  11. Did anyone ever do a story on why 3 voters did not vote for Griffey, Jr.? I just want to know why they did not, I don’t need to know who they were. I want to know their justification or reasoning for not voting for Griffey, Jr. One reason I came up with is that they wanted a Yankee – Rivera or Jeter – to be the first to get 100% Time will tell if that comes to be.

  12. If Andy Pettitte fails to get enough votes to stay on the ballot, then that is a disgrace of the highest order. He is far more worthy of the HOF than the likes of Bert Blyleven or Jack Morris and his postseason numbers basically amount to a full extra season with 20 wins!

    I’m glad Mo is going in of course but the fact that we have a HOF in recent years that has been making room for some questionable names while leaving out the likes of a Pettitte, let alone the ongoing disgrace in not voting in Clemens and Bonds (yet these same hypocrites who won’t vote for Clemens and Bonds will likely made Big Phony from Boston a first ballot HOFer) is over time not helping the institution IMO.

    • Morris has a WAR of 44, Andy 60, Captain Hook ninety f’ing five. That almost makes him an inner sanctum HOFer, 5th on the all time Ks list and at one point #3. AP may be qualified and Morris may not be, but don’t weaken your case by comparing them to Bert.

    • Big Phony! I’m assuming you’re calling him that based on the possible failed drug test from 2003. So if that makes him ineligible for the HOF in your opinion then how does Pettitte deserve it when he admitted to using HGH. Big Papi is currently 12th all time in doubles, 17th all time in homers and 22nd all time in RBI. Blyleven has 287 wins, 3.31 ERA and 3701 Ks and in the postseason he was 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA. Postseason during his era was only 2 rounds. Even if you add in Pettitte’s postseason wins it still doesn’t reach Bert’s total. The only way Andy Pettitte gets in the hall is with a paid ticket.

      • I didn’t say he should be ineligible. I’m referring to the appalling double standard in which the media employed a Scarlet Letter campaign against Clemens (who never failed a single test) and then Bonds and then Pettitte but Ortiz was coddled and had his hand held when his name turned up (it always struck me as pathetic how when A-Rod was first outed for being on the same list Ortiz was on, no one cared about “privacy” or shaming Selena Roberts who outed him but when it was Ortiz it was “how dare they reveal his name!”). My point is that Ortiz has no busines going in ahead of Clemens or Bonds and if Ortiz goes on, there should be no stigma put alongside Pettitte’s name.

        I would have put Tommy John and Jim Kaat in before I would have put in Blyleven if we want to go by contemporaries.

        • OK, I agree with a lot of what you wrote. Whatever Bonds and Clemens did it was also before Ortiz’s and Arod’s “failed but not to be revealed” tests. The problem with Pettitte is that he did it after there was testing and i guess didn’t care so he falls into the same category as Manny Ramirez. Which is a shame for both. In my HOF all of the names you mentioned get in except Pettitte. I just don’t think he should get rewarded for getting many more postseason opportunities than others, granted he was a part of why they were in the playoffs so often. I also believe Blyleven was better than John and Kaat and deserved to go in first but they all belong in. Others deserving are Gil Hodges, Ted Simmons, Dale Murphy, Keith Hernandez, Dwight Evans, Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker. Maybe one day they’ll make a committee that actually knows what they’re doing. Keep the writers off, they already had a chance and blew it. Keep the executives off it they spent their entire career as the player’s enemy. Make them larger too, one vote shouldn’t be worth 6.25%. Let all the living non-manager HOFers vote along with a few historians and give the fans 25% of the vote too.

          • First off, Pettitte’s confession was before there was testing. He was never disciplined for any steroid offense. Nor did he “not care.” Comparing him to Ramirez, who was busted *after* a policy was put in place is totally unjust and inaccurate. Pettitte is probably the greatest Yankee pitcher other than Whitey Ford and he delivered big time in the postseason spotlight. I might add that Pettitte was gypped of a Cy Young Award in 1996 that was rightfully his but the writers, showing how they will be anti-Yankee unless they have no choice, gave it to frigging *Pat Hentgen*.

            Regarding the other names you mentioned, I certainly agree that Hodges’ continued absence is a disgrace (and I’m appalled to see that Maury Wills has a greater chance of getting in than Hodges given recent trends). But Keith Hernandez alas has an elephant in the room that also applies to Dave Parker and that’s a little thing known as the cocaine scandals of the early 80s, a matter which MLB has rather too conveniently swept under the rug and I have to admit one reason I got fed up with the moralistic outrage regarding Clemens and Bonds and the steroid era is because there was an attempt to rewrite the history of baseball as innocent and pure before steroids when in fact the cocaine scandals far exceeded it. Hernandez even had a Rafael Palmeiro moment when then players union head Ken Moffet said that drugs was why the Cardinals traded him and Hernandez went into an angry public rage that forced Moffet to issue a groveling apology, but then lo and behold the story turned out to be true and Hernandez as far as I know never apologized for what he did to Moffet.

            If Hernandez and Parker for that matter are to get consideration it can only come after Clemens and Bonds are in.

          • Definitely do NOT allow fans to vote. Just look at the travesties created in All-Star voting by fans.

    • Two wrongs don’t make a right. Morris shouldn’t be in the Hall and neither should Pettitte.

      Blyleven is FAR better than either one.

      Thanks for playing, and hitting a pop-up foul out to first base.

    • Crime dog will not be eligible for the Today’s Game Era Committee (1988 – present) until 2021 at the earliest. 2019 will see the Modern Baseball Committee (1970-1987), then 2020 will see Golden Days Committee (1950-1969) and Early Baseball Committee (pre-1950) voting.

      • Thanks ED! Would love to see Dewey get in this year, hopefully. Think the 3 Close guys can make up the ground?

  13. It’s ridiculous that Jeff Kent only has 13% of voters supporting him. He’s one of the greatest 2nd basemen of all time. Sheffield’s level of support at 13.6% is a joke, too. Look at his career numbers. He is comparable to or better than Larry Walker and Walker’s above 66% at this point.
    If voters are starting to soften about letting in PED users (and it appears that they are, given the spikes of support for Bonds and Clemens), then Sosa should get in, as well.
    Finally, why is so much attention paid to offensive numbers and so little to defense? If someone was an elite defender like Andruw or Omar Vizquel, it barely helps their case.

  14. I believe you make a good point for Sheffield. His OPS+ (which adjusts for ballparks), for his career was 140, which is close to Walker‘s 141. He definitely merits great consideration.
    I believe Walker separates himself slightly by virtue of his defense. Walker was a true 5-Tool player. He had arocket of an arm out of right field.
    Mike Axisa wrote a very fine article a few years ago concerning Walker and the HOF. He cites that not only is Walker‘s career OPS+ of 141 comparable to Chipper (141), Duke Snider (140), Vlad (140), Reggie Jackson (139) and David Ortiz (139), defensive WAR places him in the top 10 defensive right fielders in baseball history. The article makes an argument for him being among the greatest 80 position players of all time.
    I believe Walker has been unfairly penalized by voters for having played so many of his games at Coors Field and to some extent in a forgotten time zone.
    I firmly believe if he had played in New York or Chicago or LA, he would already be enshrined. Most people hold an inherent bias to the region in which they live or follow teams. We all do. We‘re all subject to our own biases.

  15. If Rivera doesn’t get 100% those non-Rivera voters should lose their voting rights in the future. Yankee fan her BUT also believes Jeter does NOT deserve 100%.

    • And did you whine like the little bi*ch that your mommy raised you to be when all the other FAR more deserving players before didn’t get unanimous? No? Well..this is why everyone hates you…and Yankee fans in general. Adults who still act like TODDLERS when it comes to their sports team.

  16. I personally believe all living men on the ballot should NOT be home on the selection day. they should all be at studio 3 or 42 in the room with the man who holds the results.
    That way, the man can shake hands with the one or ones who get in in congratulations.
    The new inductees can then show their emotions on the TV and speak to the studio people. After that, they can call their relatives on the phone and say “I made it to the Hall”.

    • I always thought it would be good for baseball to have one big night where they reveal all of the regular season and postseason awards including the clemente award. They can also announce the HOF class including the vets committee, spink and frick winners too. It would be like the baseball oscars without the oscars BS. Imagine how cool it would be to see Hank Aaron give an award to Mike Trout, Koufax give one to DeGrom.

      • And the sound you would hear that night would be crickets chirping.

        You really think anyone would care about that? Jesus christ,…if you are older than 10 and still would want to watch that, you have made some severe wrong choices in life.

  17. When will the new gate keepers get Dwight Evan’s into the HOF. Numbers are just as good as Jim Rice and his WAR is a lot better than Rice. Great right fielder and one of the last with 20 years on 1 team. It’s a no brainer.

  18. The writers should not be limited to voting for ten players. I can think of several players who failed to get at least 5% in recent elections (Damon, Lofton, Moyer, et al) because the ‘steroids boys’ are cluttering the ballot

  19. It looks like Edgar Martinez is going to slip past the dinosaur DH haters with ballots this year–good for him. I’m annoyed that Mussina will probably fall a bit short due to more of those dinosaurs who can’t read a stat line (and who think that Bert “60 Shutouts” Blyleven doesn’t belong)–I suspect next year will be his time. I am definitely a fan of the running public ballot count and the pressure it puts on the stubborn.

  20. I cannot believe that only 55% of the vote went public with less than 3 hours to go in the unveiling. Why are the baseball writer making us wait on this last day of voting? It should’ve been at 85% public by now!

    • I’m kind of glad it was 55% and not 85% public. There would not have been any suspense about whether Mussina made it or not if we knew 85% of the vote. Now that its over every voter should reveal their ballots, not to open them to ridicule just to see where the votes came from. For example we could find out the true impression of the new voters versus the old if we have all of the data.

  21. Final tally.
    Mariano Rivera: 100%
    Edgar Martinez: 85.4%
    Roy Halliday: 85.4%
    Mike Mussina : 76.7%

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