The 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot marks my 25th consecutive year of fulfilling this incredible privilege as a BBWAA voter. That first ballot came in late 1999, and I mailed it back just before the new millennium arrived with Carlton Fisk and Tony Perez in Cooperstown.
We have elected 45 Major League greats over that quarter-century, and I voted for all of them except Jim Rice (2009), Andre Dawson (2010) and Bert Blyleven (2011). I overhauled my own voting approach in 2015 to prioritize WAR and JAWS metrics and always check the maximum 10 boxes, a big change from the old small-ballot days of “elite of the elite” certainty.
For most of that time, we would mail back our ballots and it was a mystery until the announcement. That all changed with social media and the BBHOF Tracker, which added more accountability and made voters more informed. It even allowed us to factor in a candidate who might be in danger of falling off the ballot.
One topic dominated this quarter-century of balloting, of course, and that was steroid use. Some voters used their ballot to take a stand. Others, self included, purposely avoided the issue because no writer will ever know all who did and didn’t.
Everyone will be in the Hall one day soon enough — Pete Rose, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Álex Rodríguez, etc. Feelings fade and performance prevails. Look how many Negro Leaguers were enshrined long after people of certain beliefs faded away. Times just change. Today we know what a large percentage of plaques (Bill Mazeroski?!) don’t belong there.
That whole PED issue caused a major ballot bottleneck that ultimately resulted in the election of an astounding 18 players over a six-year period, from 2014-19. Younger fans had become upset that their favorite players were excluded from the Hall, so this was a reactionary wave.
Now we are back to a crawl — only four electees in the four years since that period ended. The steroid debate goes on, as A-Rod and Manny Ramírez have obvious numbers for entry but will be denied, probably through their 10-year eligibility.
Another key issue over this quarter-century was the downsizing of the voting body. The Hall of Fame instituted a procedure that required voter registration, to determine how many people still cover baseball and to “sunset” those who stop covering it. It has reduced the number of voters during this quarter-century from a high of 581 in 2011 to only 389 last year. That skews younger, more stats and analysis, more 10-check ballots, more public and accountable.
So Happy New Year the traditional way, with the following 10 check marks, in order:
Álex Rodríguez, Adrian Beltré, Carlos Beltrán, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield and Andy Pettitte.
Here is a closer look at how I completed the 2024 ballot and the bubble breakdown.
1. Álex Rodríguez. Two of the top five all-time home run hitters are not in Cooperstown, Bonds (762) and A-Rod (696). Hank Aaron is second with 755 and Babe Ruth third with 714. Albert Pujols, fourth with 703, will be eligible for Hall of Fame consideration on the 2028 ballot. All five plaques should be there, not to mention Pete Rose’s. One day it will all be corrected. As noted, I have never factored the steroid subject into voting. No writer will ever know all who did and who didn’t. Even if you exclude A-Rod because he admittedly used, you don’t know that David Ortiz from last year’s HOF class didn’t. I voted Bonds/Clemens the whole way. I don’t go there.
2. Adrian Beltré. Obvious first-rounder despite never winning a ring. Not in Mike Schmidt’s class at 3B, but has a higher voting percentage as “good guys” are overcompensated today. If he’s almost unanimous, then Ichiro definitely should be unanimous next year. Ichiro > Beltré.
3. Carlos Beltrán. No. 8 all-time in WAR among center fielders, only Mike Trout isn’t in (yet) above him. Here’s another great example of inconsistency among voters. Proven cheater, knew what pitches were coming and condoned it for at least the last full year that I worked for MLB.com (2017), yet he has a much higher voting percentage than A-Rod, who is far more deserving statistically. Who decides what cheating is good and what is bad? Even if you cheated for one game, you cheated!
4. Joe Mauer. No-brainer going by WAR/JAWS, first-ballot. Doesn’t have much October street cred as Twins generally sucked in the postseason, but you can’t argue with his rank.
5. Todd Helton. Should have already been in, this time he’ll probably make it for a trio. Doesn’t matter what altitude he played in, he was steady excellence for a long, long time. I don’t know about you, but I still love a guy who plays his whole career with one franchise.
6. Andruw Jones. No. 14 all-time in WAR among center fielders, far ahead of a bunch of undeserving Hall of Famers like Hack Wilson or Earl Combs. And he’s 11th in JAWS! Lloyd Waner is in despite being 97th in JAWS. We know stuff today. Stop the madness and vote for this guy.
7. Chase Utley. No. 15 all-time in WAR among 2B, just ahead of Jackie Robinson. Ranks 12th in 2B JAWS, right above Lou Whitaker, who is ridiculously omitted from the Hall to date. It’s just further reminder that Whitaker (No. 7 in WAR) should be in alongside his double play partner Alan Trammell.
8. Billy Wagner. Ninth year on the ballot and was in the low 60s for percentage around Christmas. I started voting annually for Wagner in 2020, the year after the bottleneck was cleared. Think he will get in next year, especially if three get in this year. Ask any hitter he faced.
9. Gary Sheffield. Tenth and final year on the ballot, guessing Sheff will come up a little short… but once again doing what I can here. Became more popular with writers in later life.
10. Andy Pettitte. The Yankee left-hander was king of the postseason era, the guy who won after a playoff loss. He ranks 65th all-time in WAR (60.2) among starting pitchers, which is strong. There are only eight starting pitchers above him who are excluded, save for the ones who are either locks down the road (i.e. Jason Verlander and Clayton Kershaw) or the banished (i.e. Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling). Have voted for him every year but it doesn’t look like he will go in through the BBWAA. I feel there is still too much legend to ignore. DISCUSS
BUBBLE
Any of these guys could be a nice No. 10. Maybe next year.
11. Jimmy Rollins. Will probably vote for him next year, was No. 10 here but want to help keep Pettitte on for more discussion. I waited long enough to take a peek at the Tracker so I know J-Roll is in no danger of falling off the ballot. Let’s be honest, Utley/Rollins was a good notch below “Trammaker” in Detroit. But you can still make a case for Rollins, who ranks 26th in all-time WAR among shortstops with 47.6. Except for A-Rod, only three shortstops above him are not in the Hall: Bill Dahlen, Bert Campaneris and Jim Fregosi. Campy is a gross omission to date, more deserving than J-Roll.
12. Manny Ramírez. Dropping him this year as a “lost cause” candidate, the same way I eventually dropped Big Mac. I’m done at least for now. Numbers are obviously Cooperstown-worthy but no room for him on the 2024 ballot.
13. Bobby Abreu. On-again, off-again bubble pick for me over the years. He ranks 20th all-time in RF WAR, right behind Sheff. Abreu is halfway through his eligibility, and looks like a struggle.
14. Omar Vizquel. Still can’t see it from the BBWAA. And yet I still see him getting in via an Era ballot one day as his glove was so stupendously good. Why is his campaign so lifeless? He has sabotaged his own case with a several off-field issues.
Big cliff dropoff here.
15. David Wright. Coulda shoulda woulda been a contender, just didn’t play long enough for the Mets. Even Don Mattingly made a longer case before he faded from contention. Great guy and great memories, even for the USA in that first World Baseball Classic.
That’s it. Frankie Rodríguez needs too much hype and too much arcane metric creativity, don’t see ever voting for him.
Looking forward next year to Ichiro. Will he be the second unanimous first-ballot selection? I think he should be, but there’s always that someone in our crowd.
Writers are still a good group to do this voting. The Era committees have improved, with many wrongs righted in recent years. There are still missing legends, still plaques that should be yanked off the wall, but bottom line there are awe-struck patrons in the Gallery whenever you walk through the Hall of Fame and that’s what it’s all about, right?
Looking forward to more fun years of elections, at least until the sun sets down here in sunny St. Pete…
Mark Newman is a recipient of the National Magazine Award for General Excellence and author of No. 1 bestseller Diamonds from the Dugout. He has been a pro sports beat writer for The Miami Herald, Fort Worth Star-Telegram and San Jose Mercury News; VP/GM at The Sporting News, and from 2002-2018 was a familiar byline to millions of baseball fans as Enterprise Editor and lead national writer for MLB.com plus the first 26,000 tweets & first 1.2 million followers as @MLB. The Indiana University graduate is a longtime Hall of Fame voting member of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America working 25 World Series.
