The 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot is such a dud, first-year candidate Matt Kemp literally could get a few votes because he dated Rihanna. That’s how much we are scraping in some cases to build cases for this year’s eligible former Major Leaguers.
Seriously, it’s just one of those years that comes along every two or three decades out of happenstance. You don’t get Ichiro Suzuki or Albert Pujols every year, and honestly that’s what makes those years special. But this year is a soporific test of one’s resolve to check all 10 available boxes, as this this writer tried to do with his 27th consecutive ballot.
I did it! Chase Utley, Álex Rodríguez, Andy Pettitte, Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, Dustin Pedroia, Félix Hernández, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels and Manny Ramírez.
Then I took my Bernedoodle Bear to the park, dropping this off in a post office box on the way just before Christmas. Seeing the Contemporary Era Committee choose Jeff Kent over Don Mattingly just made Cooperstown 2026 even more blah, but it’s an honor this voter takes seriously and the more 10-box ballots the better, I think. No matter what.
It’s obvious from last year’s results that Beltran will be selected in his fourth year of eligibility, having received 70.3 percent of the vote, with 75 needed for election. Jones is a hump-and-bump pick: he drew 66.2% last year, and he really just needs to rise a little bit to get over the hump in 2026 then a last-year sympathy bump in 2027. That’s where we are right now.
Here are the 10 I checked, in order:
1. CHASE UTLEY
The former Phillies and Dodgers second baseman got 39.8% of the vote last time in his second year on the ballot, and that needs to rise fast. He finished his career with a 64.5 bWAR — 14th all-time among second basemen (with a minimum 50% of games played there). That tops 11 current HOF 2Bs including Jackie Robinson. Comps in the HOF are Ryne Sandberg (67.9), Roberto Alomar (67) and Craig Biggio (65.4). Utley is 12th in JAWS at 2B, with only Robinson Cano and Bobby Grich above him on the list not in Cooperstown.
2. ÁLEX RODRÍGUEZ
696 home runs, 3,115 hits, 2,021 runs, 2086 RBIs, 117.4 WAR. You know the rest. We are now at the halfway point in A-Rod’s eligibility decade. He drew 146 votes for 37.1 percent. He is pulling out all the stops over the past decade, including a recent HBO/MAX doc in which he shows a little humility, which is to say enough for a thimble. I’ve enjoyed being around him and at least he has been legit in a second career of analysis, not that it matters here.
3. ANDY PETTITTE
In 2019, I was one of just 42 voters who checked the Yankee legend’s box, or 9.9%. One of my own reasons was that I was still pissed at myself and others for not giving Jorge Posada at least a chance two years earlier to hit 5% and stay on the ballot long enough to be discussed. The main reason for supporting Pettitte each year has been his solid claim as one of the best postseason pitchers in history. That means something. He just screams “winner.” Easily the best in the post-1994 era of expanded playoffs, always the ace who won a big game after a loss. He ranks 64th in WAR at 60.2, reasonably worthy for consideration. This research also reminds me that Zach Greinke is much higher at No. 29 and should be inducted at the end of this decade.
4. CARLOS BELTRÁN
Among all-time centerfielders, Beltrán ranks eighth in WAR (70.0) and ninth in JAWS (57.2). When Joe DiMaggio is the guy right above you in WAR, this is a no-brainer. My favorite Beltrán was still the early years with Kansas City, when he was electric. I’ve never factored steroids into my voting because we can’t know who all did it, but I still feel duped covering the 2017 Astros through the World Series and now knowing how he cheated with the sign-stealing system. It’s not as bad sociologically as steroids, but in this case it was proven, marring his record.
5. ANDRUW JONES
Right behind Beltran on those WAR & JAWS CF lists is Jones. It’s 62.7 in WAR for No. 14, and only Mike Trout, Beltran and Kenny Lofton (our biggest whiff in my quarter-century of voting) rank above him with plaques yet to be hung. This is his ninth year on the ballot, and I won’t be surprised if he falls just slightly short of 75 in this crappy ballot year, then gets over the hill with the last-year sympathy nudge in 2027. Usually how it happens. What few people realize is that back in 2018, Jones barely survived by the skin of his teeth to stay on the ballot, receiving 5.7% of the vote…with 5 required to continue on for a second year.
6. DUSTIN PEDROIA
Last year, I was one of only ten writers who voted for Ian Kinsler. That was just 2.5% of the vote so his name no longer appears on this ballot. What a joke! Kinsler ranked 21st in JAWS, one ahead of just-selected Jeff Kent…and 20th in WAR, one behind Kent. You’re telling me Kinsler didn’t at least deserve a discussion? Can you say East Coast bias? So that brings us to Pedroia, who had the Boston/AL East bright lights, more PR. I think both second basemen should be inducted, but Pedroia is the only one of those AL guys left, and Cano will be a non-factor in voting due to steroids. Let’s at least get it right on Pedroia. Here’s how JAWS looks:
19 – Jose Altuve
20 – Pedroia
21 – Kinsler
22 – Kent
7. FÉLIX HERNÁNDEZ
Man, I like players who spend their whole careers with the same team. He was a Mariner from 2005-2019, and from 2009-2015 he was one of the game’s dominant starters. Over those seven years, the Venezuelan lefty had six All-Star selections, one Cy Young Award (with that 13-12 record!) and two more Cy runner-up finishes. He more than any pitcher may have been the face of a new emphasis on metrics beyond wins for starters…but his endurance waned after that 2009-2015 run and that will be his candidacy bugaboo. He’d be a bubble pick for me on a strong ballot.
8. JIMMY ROLLINS
Last year, the Phillies legend was on my bubble so I did not vote for him. There wasn’t enough room, not the case now. He will jump up from the teens in vote percentage this time simply due to the horrific overall ballot, and then better ballots will suppress him again. Last year, Troy Tulowitzki got three votes (0.9%). A quick in-and-out. Yet he outranked Rollins 42.5 to 40.3 on the JAWS list at shortstop. But look at WAR and it’s much different. Rollins ranks 27th at 47.9 — and only four guys above him are not in the Hall, plus A-Rod. That’s the stat if you’re a Rollins campaigner. He was a true leader, a four-time Gold Glove winner, an MVP in 2007, a durable champ. He will get some of the Omar Vizquel treatment for compiling just by having a long career, and that may ultimately keep him out. But who doesn’t like J-Roll?
9. COLE HAMELS
He picked the right year to debut on the ballot, and honestly I’m just voting to help make sure he gets at least 5%. (I know it’s not a criteria, but I almost want to vote for him just because he was the guy who talked to me in the Phillies clubhouse during the 2009 World Series when flaky Cliff Lee would not talk about why he missed a team bus and then nearly showed up late after a whole taxi-and-subway episode.) The biggest problem for me with Hamels is that here I am making an annual case for Pettitte on why to overlook a No. 64 WAR ranking among starting pitchers, and Hamels ranks another SEVEN spots lower than Petttitte . . . without the same level of postseason glory. There will be some heavy-duty grassroots campaigning to be had.
10. MANNY RAMÍREZ
I’m using up my bubble picks from recent ballots here, again reflecting the mediocrity of this ballot. Look, Manny’s Hall of Fame dream died a long time ago. We all know that. Maybe the dumbest choice of steroid use in history cost him this election. He didn’t need to do it, but once he got to LA it was all over — he was a show and had to perform. Over 19 seasons, he gave us a lot of fun and thrills: 555 home runs, a .312 career average, 1,831 RBIs, an OPS+ of 154, the 2004 breakthrough and much more. This is his final year on the ballot, so if I’m going to go all the way here and use all 10 boxes, then let’s send him out in style.
There it is. Ten Hall of Fame picks. I can honestly say that the second half was stretching it, but I committed to using all 10 boxes as long as the BBWAA keeps sending them to me. And it won’t be for much longer. Unless I get the urge to start covering baseball regularly again, the 10-year “sunset” clause will end this personal tradition in a few years. I’d be fine with that. It is a rite passed along from generation to generation of writers close to the game, on I take pride in fulfilling with honor going back to the 2000 ballot of Carlton Fisk and Tony Perez. This is maybe the biggest stinker ballot in that entire run, but it always comes back strong.
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Mark Newman is the author of several books including No. 1 bestseller Diamonds from the Dugout, and most recently was a 16-year writer for MLB.com and originator of @MLB
