I have a few improvements to the Tracker in mind for the coming year. Have a look at the preview available at bit.ly/hof2017 and let me know what you think.
- I’ve “hidden” candidates who are expected to receive less than ~10% support in a group (which can be revealed by clicking the “+” above column AH). This frees up screen real estate for candidates expected to receive higher vote totals, and makes data in their columns easier to read.
- After expanding the hidden group, a summary of ballots with X number of players is available. I’ll likely move this elsewhere later.
- Rows 9 and 10 detail actual final percent versus the percent a player received on pre-results public ballots, as well as public ballot percent versus private ballot percent from last year.
- Xs instead of 1s for votes.
- “Net +/- among returning voters” is now automated instead of manually tallied. Now it’ll be accurate!
- Anonymous ballots separated out from the true public ones.
- A landing page (tab) with top line information only: players’ current percentages, number of ballots revealed, and net +/-. See the “Summary” tab for a simple version of the idea.
Other suggestions? Let me know @NotMrTibbs or email@example.com.
Update 1/20/16 – additional implementations from reader suggestions:
- Gained votes and lost votes given individual rows, 20 and 21 (thanks @sarsdell)
- Added “Projected Net Gain Needed for 75%” at row 23 (thanks @flubs68 and many others).
- As noted on the sheet, this is based on numerous assumptions: Total ballots cast will be 450 (likely to be updated later this year when more is known), total first-time voters will be 15 and each candidate will receive the same % among them as he received among first-time voters last year, returning # of voters will be 435
- Formula: 338 votes needed for 75% – ((435 * actual % from 2016) + (15 * % among first-time voters last year)) = # of net gained votes needed this year for 75%
- Pre-announcement, post-announcement, and anonymous ballots have individual tallies, currently at B29, B33, and B36 (thanks @stabilio1)
Welcome back to another year of Hall of Fame vote tracking!
I’m not planning on blogging this year, but ballots are streaming in and the Tracker is tracking. Special thanks to co-conspirators Darren Viola (aka Repoz, the OG ballot collector responsible for the renowned HoF Ballot Collecting Gizmo) and Ilychs “The Panamanian Sensation” Morales.
The Tracker can be viewed at bit.ly/hof16
For all the latest, follow me at @NotMrTibbs.
I finally found the elusive 286th ballot this morning, putting known ballots at 50.09% of all ballots cast.
Never before have we had more revealed ballots than anonymous ones.
I haven’t confirmed each and every one of these writers as full 10-consecutive-year BBWAA members, but this is the list of BBWAA badges issued in 2005. Assuming they remained dues-paying BBWAA members since then, this is the 2015 freshman Hall of Fame voting class (eligible to vote for Hall of Fame candidates in December, 2014):
Last year, five writers submitted blank ballots (which doesn’t count as a non-vote, it counts as a vote against everybody, and brings every player’s percentage down). One of those voters has managed to remain anonymous. The other four came forward: Jorge Ebro (who famously didn’t realize that sending back a blank ballot would harm all candidates), Chris Jenkins (who wrote a column explaining why he did it), Mark Faller (whose explanation is now behind a paywall), and Howard Bryant from ESPN.
This year, one voter submitted a blank ballot according to the BBWAA. Was it the same anonymous voter as last year? Nobody knows except for that voter. It could be Chris Jenkins, who has yet to reveal his ballot this year in the San Diego Union Tribune or to me when asked via email.
The other three 2013 blank ballot submitters have revealed their ballots again this year:
- Jorge Ebro told me via email that he voted for 6 players this year: Biggio, Glavine, Maddux, Morris, Piazza, and Thomas.
- Howard Bryant told me on Twitter that he voted for Glavine, Maddux, Morris, and Thomas.
- Mark Faller went from zero to the maximum 10, as he detailed in a column last week: Bagwell, Biggio, Glavine, Maddux, Morris, Piazza, Raines, Schilling, Smith, and Thomas
So all that’s left is Jenkins and our anonymous Blank Ballot Bandit(s). I’ll update this post if Jenkins (or any other blank balloter) reveals his 2014 ballot.
Moises Alou (6), Hideo Nomo (6), Luis Gonzalez (5), Eric Gagne (2), J.T. Snow (2), Armando Benitez (1), Jacque Jones (1), and Kenny Rogers (1) received a total of 24 votes between them.
I’ve collected 49.21% of the ballots that were cast. Nearly half.
We know where exactly 1 of those 24 votes came from. The other 23 remain anonymous.
With 281 ballots collected (49.2% of total known ballots), here’s how much support players received from voters based on the number of players included on ballots:
- Bagwell received almost no support from voters who had fewer than 7 players on their ballots.
- Biggio received little support from writers who voted for fewer than 5 players.
- Frank Thomas was not a Hall of Famer to 3 and 4 vote ballot casters.
- Tim Raines received well over 50% support from writers who voted for 6 or more players, but received just 2 of 35 other votes.
- Ken Gurnick is the worst. (So far, anyway. Apparently there was at least one blank ballot submitted.)